Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that official reading, drawn from the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" metric published in its Daily Extract dataset. Settlement occurs once the Observatory finalises its data, which typically happens within days of the observation date. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of any pre-market consensus on which temperature range will occur—a common state for weather markets far in advance of the event date.

Hong Kong's May temperatures exhibit consistent patterns across decades of records. Historical data shows late-May highs typically range between 28–32°C, with occasional excursions above 33°C during heat waves or early monsoon transitions. May 2025 and May 2024 both recorded maximum temperatures in the 30–31°C band on comparable dates, providing a baseline for traders assessing probability distributions. Extreme outliers—readings above 35°C or below 26°C in late May—remain statistically rare but not unprecedented, particularly if tropical cyclone activity or unusual pressure systems affect the region.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under different compliance frameworks depending on trader location. German traders fall under GlüStV oversight, which classifies prediction markets as gambling products subject to state licensing requirements. US traders face CFTC jurisdiction over event contracts, though the agency's enforcement posture toward weather derivatives remains limited. UK-based platforms typically operate under Gambling Commission remit for binary outcomes. Most prediction market operators maintain no-KYC thresholds up to approximately $1,500 per transaction, meaning traders can access this Hong Kong weather market without identity verification below that stake level—a practical accessibility feature for small-position weather speculation.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.