Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, measured to one decimal place and published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract climate data. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes finalised data, typically within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are historically stable within a narrow band. Daily maxima in early June average 29–31°C, with extreme outliers rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the actual high to fall outside all offered ranges—a scenario that occurs when either an unseasonable heat event or data publication delay prevents settlement. Historical volatility in June is modest; tropical systems occasionally elevate humidity and cloud cover, suppressing daytime peaks, whilst high-pressure systems can drive readings toward 33–34°C. Comparable June days from the past decade show clustering around 30–31°C, making extreme ranges (below 28°C or above 35°C) statistically unlikely.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in early June 2026, as these directly influence atmospheric conditions on the settlement date. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks in advance. Data accessibility varies by regulatory jurisdiction: traders in Germany fall under GlüStV oversight, whilst US participants face CFTC reach depending on their broker's registration status. Markets under $1,500 notional value typically operate without KYC requirements in certain jurisdictions, though this market's structure and settlement mechanics may trigger additional compliance obligations depending on individual trader location and account classification.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 8? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.