Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, measured to one decimal place and published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract climate data. Settlement occurs after the Observatory finalises and publishes the figure, which typically happens within days of the observation date.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28°C and 34°C, with historical daily maxima rarely breaching 35°C during early June. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands available for this market, or the range thresholds sit outside typical seasonal norms. Comparable June days from the past decade show the Observatory recording highs of 30–33°C most frequently; extreme outliers above 35°C occur but remain uncommon before mid-month when the southwest monsoon intensifies heat and humidity.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts released in May 2026 and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early June, both of which influence daily maxima. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 7 June, but actual resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its Daily Extract data, typically within 48 hours. From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction: German traders face GlüStV restrictions on prediction market participation; US traders fall under CFTC oversight of event contracts; and traders in no-KYC jurisdictions up to $1,500 notional exposure can access this market without identity verification, though settlement and withdrawal remain subject to platform compliance rules.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 7? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.