Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, sourced from the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes finalised data, typically within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster around 28–32°C historically, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early-summer heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the market's lowest temperature band to capture the day's high, though this reflects uncertainty about which specific range the Observatory will record rather than any meteorological impossibility. Comparable June days from the past decade show variability: some years see modest highs in the upper 20s during cooler monsoon patterns, whilst others breach 34°C during high-pressure systems. The current probability distribution likely reflects the market's difficulty pricing a single-day weather outcome six months forward.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late May and early June 2026, as these drive significant temperature swings. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and daily weather bulletins at weather.gov.hk; these sources will clarify atmospheric patterns in the weeks preceding settlement. From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls within CFTC reach as a financial derivative accessible to US persons, whilst EU traders face German GlüStV classification as a prediction market contract. No-KYC access up to $1,500 USD notional exposure applies on most prediction platforms, meaning casual traders can participate without identity verification up to that threshold, though larger positions trigger standard compliance requirements.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.