Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daily temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 25 June 2026, specifically the highest Celsius reading in degrees. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the defined range. Historical data frames this scepticism: Hong Kong recently recorded its hottest day of the year so far at 34.6°C, with seasonal forecasts for June–August 2026 predicting above-normal temperatures across the region[1][6]. AccuWeather projects daily highs between 87°F and 93°F (30.6°C–33.9°C) for June 2026, aligning with the HKO’s warning of extreme heat and a 33.7°C peak earlier in the month[2][4]. These comparable cases indicate that while extreme heat is likely, the specific range threshold may be calibrated to exclude typical June maxima, explaining the zero probability.

Traders must monitor the HKO’s finalised “Daily Extract” for the specified date, as the market cannot resolve until this data is published[1]. Key catalysts include the latest ENSO status updates and climate model revisions, which directly influence the above-normal temperature forecast for the region[1]. Recent news confirms Hong Kong is already sweltering through record highs, with hail warnings issued alongside the 34.6°C peak, suggesting volatile weather patterns that could push temperatures higher or lower unexpectedly[6]. For accessibility, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define regulatory boundaries, while the “no-KYC up to $1,500” feature allows retail participants to access this market without identity verification, provided they stay within the threshold. This specific market remains accessible to those navigating these regulatory frameworks, though data finalisation remains the critical dependency.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.