Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being offered. Historical data frames this low probability: June 2025 saw Hong Kong record its hottest day of the year so far at 34.6°C, while the 2026 seasonal forecast explicitly predicts above-normal temperatures for June through August, with a high chance of reaching the warmest top 10 on record[1][6]. The average high for June is 90°F (32.2°C), but recent extreme heat warnings have pushed New Territories temperatures to 37°C, indicating significant volatility that could easily breach narrow ranges[2][4].

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract releases, which finalize the Absolute Daily Max data only after the settlement window closes on 24 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC[1]. A key catalyst is the official 2026 Annual Outlook, which confirms 2026 may be one of Hong Kong’s hottest years on record, driven by climate change trends increasing temperatures by 0.35°C per decade[6][8]. Regulatory accessibility also matters: under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, platforms offering "no-KYC up to $1,500" allow immediate participation for retail traders without identity verification, though this specific market’s 0% probability may deter entry until data is finalized[1]. Recent news from the South China Morning Post highlights the intensity of current heatwaves, reinforcing the risk that temperatures could exceed typical June averages[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.