Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 22 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the "YES" outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, despite seasonal forecasts predicting above-normal temperatures for June through August 2026[1].

Historical precedents frame this low probability; June 2023 saw Hong Kong’s hottest summer on record with a mean of 29.7°C, and 2025 broke the absolute maximum for June at 35.6°C[4][9]. February 2026 already recorded an exceptionally warm 26.9°C, and recent warnings indicate New Territories temperatures could hit 37°C, making the 0% crowd stance a bet against a specific narrow threshold rather than against heat itself[5][6].

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" for finalised data, as the market cannot resolve until publication[1]. Regulatory accessibility is shaped by German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach, where "no-KYC up to $1,500" allows retail participants to access this weather market without identity verification, provided they stay under the threshold. Recent reports of Hong Kong hitting 34.6°C earlier this year underscore the volatility traders face[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.