Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement hinge is the **highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in Hong Kong on 21 June 2026**, with the resolution value taken from the Observatory’s final “Daily Extract” once published in Celsius to one decimal place. Hong Kong’s summer forecast from the Observatory points to **above-normal temperatures** across June to August 2026, which supports a non-zero chance of a warm late-June reading even though the market is currently priced at 0% YES.[3][8]

For context, Hong Kong has seen late-June extremes before: the Observatory’s tourist weather page showed a maximum of **26.6°C** for 21 June in one current display, while reporting a year-to-date peak of **33.7°C** earlier in the season.[1][2] On comparable hot solstice days, the city has also reached **34°C** in past reporting, so traders typically treat a zero price as a statement about the distribution being thin at the top end rather than a guarantee of cool weather.[9] In market terms, the spread is also affected by the exact temperature band used for settlement, not just whether the day feels hot.

Accessibility and compliance matter here. Under Germany’s **GlüStV**, prediction markets can face gambling classification risk if they are not structured as exempt financial or permitted products, so German access is often narrower than the user interface suggests. In the US, the **CFTC** can assert reach over event contracts with a derivatives character, which is why geography and product classification matter for availability. “**No-KYC up to $1,500**” means a user may be able to place and withdraw below that threshold with limited identity checks, but it does not remove jurisdictional blocks, sanctions screening, or source-of-funds controls; for this market, that mainly affects who can participate rather than the weather resolution itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.