Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Market context

On 17 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once the meteorological data is finalised. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its final figures, typically within 24–48 hours of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are highly predictable within narrow bands. Historical data from the Observatory shows that mid-June maxima cluster between 29–33°C, with extreme readings above 34°C or below 28°C occurring in fewer than 5% of cases over the past three decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or minimal trading activity; comparable weather markets on this platform typically show non-zero probabilities across all plausible bands when sufficient liquidity exists. June sits in Hong Kong's early monsoon season, when sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric moisture patterns create stable conditions that historical precedent constrains tightly.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in early June, as these represent the primary catalysts for temperature deviation from the 30–32°C modal range. The Observatory publishes monthly climate summaries and maintains real-time weather data accessible via its website; no external announcements trigger resolution, since the underlying measurement is a direct instrumental reading. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's publication schedule and data quality control procedures, both of which are routine and unlikely to cause delays beyond 48 hours post-observation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.