Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, sourced from the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory finalises and publishes the data—typically within one to two days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28 and 34 degrees Celsius, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 35 degrees. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are uncertain which specific band will be selected, rather than doubting whether a temperature will be recorded. Comparable June days from the past decade show most highs settling in the 30–33 range, with outlier heat events pushing toward 35–36 degrees occurring roughly once every three to five years during the pre-monsoon season. The current probability distribution reflects genuine uncertainty about seasonal conditions rather than data availability risk.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather market operates under different frameworks depending on trader location. UK-based traders face no specific KYC requirement for positions under £1,500 notional value under the Gambling Commission's exemption for prediction markets. German traders should note GlüStV applies to derivative betting products, though weather derivatives on regulated platforms may fall outside gaming classification. US traders remain subject to CFTC oversight of derivatives trading, with no categorical exemption for weather prediction markets regardless of stake size. Settlement depends entirely on Hong Kong Observatory publication; no interim announcements or forecasts trigger early resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.