Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius for that day. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though final resolution depends on the Observatory publishing its "Absolute Daily Max" figure in the Daily Extract dataset. Hong Kong's June climate typically sees temperatures between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves or pre-monsoon conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting historical baseline data or treating this as a calibration market pending comparable precedent.

Historical Hong Kong temperature records show June highs cluster around 31–32°C in most years, with extremes reaching 35°C during exceptional heat events. The 2015 heatwave and June 2022 conditions provide recent reference points for understanding tail-risk temperature ranges. Current meteorological forecasts for mid-2026 remain unavailable; traders typically rely on seasonal norms and long-term climate datasets from the Observatory's archives to establish prior distributions across temperature bands.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets require licensing; traders in Germany face restrictions unless the operator holds appropriate approval. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like instruments, though binary weather outcomes sometimes fall outside direct CFTC reach depending on settlement mechanics. Many platforms offer no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure, meaning traders can participate in this market without identity verification below that threshold—a material consideration for retail participation in weather derivatives across multiple jurisdictions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.