Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius for that date. This measurement, published to one decimal place in the Observatory's Daily Extract, forms the settlement basis. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across all ranges.

Hong Kong's June climate is characterised by pre-monsoon heat and humidity. Historical data from the Observatory shows June daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 34°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% probability assigned to certain ranges may reflect seasonal norms; however, traders should note that anomalous weather patterns—including tropical cyclone activity or unusual pressure systems—can shift outcomes materially. Comparable June days from prior years provide calibration: the Observatory's archives show variability sufficient to justify non-zero probabilities across multiple temperature bands.

Regulatory accessibility differs by jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, weather derivatives on prediction markets face stricter classification; US CFTC oversight applies to US-domiciled traders, though weather prediction markets occupy a grey zone pending further guidance. For UK and EU traders, no-KYC access up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500) applies on platforms compliant with MiFID II thresholds, making entry into this market feasible without formal identity verification below that stake level. Settlement depends entirely on Hong Kong Observatory publication timelines; delays in data release will postpone resolution beyond the 12:00 UTC window.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.