Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's maximum daily temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. June sits within Hong Kong's pre-monsoon season, when daytime highs typically range between 29–33°C, though humidity and cloud cover significantly influence actual peaks. The 0% crowd probability suggests either low trader participation or expectation that resolution data will face delays beyond the settlement window.

Historical Hong Kong Observatory records show June temperatures cluster predictably around seasonal norms, with extreme outliers rare. The 11th holds no particular meteorological significance that would skew expectations upward or downward relative to the broader month. Comparable June days over the past decade have produced maxima between 28–34°C depending on synoptic patterns. The current probability distribution likely reflects uncertainty about data publication timing rather than temperature forecasting difficulty.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under different frameworks depending on trader location. German traders face GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) restrictions on prediction market participation, effectively limiting access. US CFTC jurisdiction extends to binary outcome contracts offered to US persons, though weather derivatives typically fall outside direct oversight if structured as information contracts. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold common in prediction markets means traders can access this market with minimal identity verification provided their position value remains below that ceiling, lowering friction for casual participation but creating settlement verification challenges if disputes arise post-resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.