Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily high, with settlement contingent on the Observatory's publication of the "Absolute Daily Max" figure in its Daily Extract dataset. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assess no meaningful likelihood of extreme heat on that specific date, though Hong Kong's subtropical climate produces frequent summer peaks exceeding 32°C.

Historical June temperature data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 35°C during early summer. The Observatory's records indicate June averages around 31–32°C, with occasional spikes above 34°C during heat waves or when tropical systems approach. Comparable June dates over the past decade provide calibration: extreme outliers (above 36°C) remain rare but not unprecedented, whilst readings below 28°C are statistically uncommon. The current zero probability may reflect either genuine confidence in mid-range outcomes or insufficient liquidity in tail-risk bands.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls under different jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing authority) treats prediction markets as wagering products requiring operator licensing; UK traders face no specific KYC threshold for weather markets under £1,500 notional value, though operators must comply with Gambling Commission standards. US CFTC oversight applies if the platform is US-registered or targets US persons, classifying weather derivatives as exempt commodities. Settlement timing—the market closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date itself—means traders must monitor Observatory updates closely, as publication delays could extend resolution beyond initial settlement windows.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.