Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Market context

On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific location and date, converting between Celsius and Fahrenheit as needed. Guangzhou's June climate typically sees daily highs between 28–35°C, though extreme heat events can push readings higher. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently perceive either insufficient liquidity or uncertainty about which temperature band the market offers, rather than confidence that no heat will occur.

Historical June temperatures at Guangzhou Baiyun show consistent patterns: the airport station has recorded highs averaging 31–33°C during early June over the past decade, with occasional spikes to 36–37°C during heat waves. Comparable prediction markets on Chinese airport temperatures have resolved within expected seasonal ranges, indicating that Wunderground data typically aligns with meteorological forecasts issued 1–2 weeks prior. The current zero probability may reflect that traders have not yet engaged with this market's specific temperature bands or settlement mechanics.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, weather derivatives fall outside gaming regulation if structured as financial instruments; however, prediction markets remain subject to BaFin oversight. US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading on offshore platforms, though weather markets often escape direct commodity classification. For UK traders, markets under £1,500 notional value typically operate without formal KYC requirements on certain platforms, though identity verification may still apply at withdrawal. Traders should verify their platform's specific regulatory status before committing capital.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.