Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date historically prone to extreme heat and heavy rainfall in the subtropical zone. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest temperature range suggests traders anticipate conditions will fall below the threshold, yet historical data shows June highs in Guangzhou frequently reach 36.6°C, with averages around 28°C and occasional storms driven by subtropical high-pressure systems[1][7].

Historical precedents frame this probability as potentially mispriced, given that May 2026 saw Guangzhou hit 36.3°C during continuous sunny days, marking it the hottest May in history[4]. June remains one of the wettest months with 280 mm average rainfall, yet typhoons and intense heatwaves can still push temperatures beyond typical ranges, making the 0% YES probability a bold stance against volatile subtropical weather patterns[1][3].

Traders should monitor upcoming typhoon forecasts and subtropical high-pressure announcements, as these dependencies directly influence temperature spikes and storm frequency. Recent reports from People’s Daily confirm the region’s susceptibility to record-breaking heat, urging close attention to weather schedules that could alter settlement outcomes[4]. Regulatory accessibility remains a key factor: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define market compliance, while the ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ threshold ensures broad participation for this weather-specific prediction without intrusive verification barriers.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.