Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak heat recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 26 June 2026, a date falling squarely within the city’s intense hot season that typically spans from late June to early September[1]. Historical data confirms Chongqing is notorious for extreme highs, with the city’s hottest day reaching 43.2°C in August 2022 and a cumulative 149 days exceeding 40°C since 1951[4][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific temperature range appears inconsistent with these precedents, as June 21 saw a subtropical ridge pushing temperatures toward 31–32°C, suggesting similar conditions could persist on 26 June[3].

Traders should monitor the evolution of the subtropical high-pressure ridge over the Sichuan Basin, which acts as the primary catalyst for peak temperatures in this region[3]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 indicate variable wind speeds and rainfall patterns that could modulate the daily high, making real-time Wunderground updates critical for accurate resolution[2]. The regulatory landscape further shapes accessibility: German GlüStV implications may restrict participation for residents in certain states, while US CFTC reach remains a factor for American traders, though “no-KYC up to $1,500” provisions allow broader access for smaller positions without identity verification hurdles. This specific market’s liquidity depends on balancing these weather dependencies with the evolving regulatory framework.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.