Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

Chengdu’s June heat profile is usually warm rather than extreme, with average highs rising only modestly through the month and typical daily highs in the low 30s Celsius at most. WeatherSpark puts June highs in Chengdu around 81–83°F, with values rarely falling below 71°F or exceeding 91°F, while travel guides note that 35°C-plus days do occur, but are less common than in July to September.[1][5] For this market, that matters because the settlement is based on the *single highest* temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 20 June, so one short-lived warm spike can matter more than the daily mean.

A 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are currently pricing an outcome outside the market’s expected range, but historical comparables argue for caution rather than certainty. A previous Polymarket Chengdu June temperature market referenced official model consensus and June averages around 29–31°C, with 33°C or higher assigned below 7% combined, indicating that very hot readings are usually low-probability but not impossible.[3] Comparable climate guides also say June can include heavy rain and humidity, which can suppress highs, yet occasional mid-to-late-June spikes into the mid-to-high 30s Celsius remain part of the historical distribution.[2][6]

The main catalysts are local weather evolution, monsoon rain timing, and any airport-station observation updates on Wunderground, which is the stated resolution source.[4] Because the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, traders should focus on whether Chengdu sees afternoon heating or cloud/rain cover before that cut-off rather than the full day elsewhere. From a market-access angle, German GlüStV rules may affect whether participation is treated as permitted gambling activity in Germany, while the US CFTC’s reach can be relevant for US-facing access or enforcement risk depending on the platform’s structure; “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means small balances or trades may be possible without full identity checks, but it does not remove geoblocking, sanctions screening, or local legal restrictions on access to this specific market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.