Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s top temperature on 9 August will be judged against the **Daily Observations** entry for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, not the headline “Day High & Low” figure. That matters because the market settles on the highest Celsius reading logged in the station table, so the tradable question is whether the day’s recorded maximum lands inside the relevant temperature band rather than what any summary widget shows. [3][4]

Historically, Chengdu is a warm, humid August city, with average highs around 30°C and record 9 August highs well above that, including 38.1°C on the date-specific history page and 39°C in broader historic records. Comparable weather-history pages also show that early-August highs often sit in the low 30s, which makes the current 0% implied probability look like an extreme pricing outcome rather than a reflection of the climate baseline. [1][10][16]

For catalysts, the main watchpoints are the airport station’s live observations, any late-day spike in heat before the settlement cutoff, and whether showers or cloud cover cap the afternoon maximum; current forecast pages point to a high around 33–34°C for 9 August. [1][20] On access, a “no-KYC up to $1,500” structure generally means smaller positions can be entered without identity verification until cumulative activity crosses that threshold, but for German users GlüStV rules can still affect whether the market is legally accessible, while US persons may face CFTC reach if the product is treated as a derivatives-style event contract.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 9? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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