Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is tied to the highest temperature recorded at Minister Pistarini International Airport near Buenos Aires on 22 May, with the settlement window already ending at 12:00 UTC, so late-day warming in Argentina will not affect this resolution. For context, Buenos Aires is normally cooling into late autumn: World Weather Information Service climatology shows a typical 22 May range around 7°C to 13°C, while average May highs are about 16°C to 18°C and usually trend lower through the month. That makes a top-of-range outcome in the low teens materially more plausible than anything approaching summer levels. By comparison, the city’s absolute heat record is 43.3°C, but that is a midsummer extreme and not a useful guide for late May pricing. Current crowd-implied pricing at 0% YES suggests the market is treating even the upper end of the forecast band as the relevant cap, rather than expecting an unusual warm surge.

Traders should watch the airport forecast updates, any last-minute shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or frontal timing, and whether the final Wunderground daily maximum is revised once observations are finalised. Regional weather coverage in recent days has pointed to mixed conditions across Argentina, but the key driver for this market is local maximum temperature at Ezeiza rather than broader national heat. On access, the legal and tax framing matters: under Germany’s GlüStV, prediction-market participation can trigger gambling-law restrictions depending on structure and user location, while US CFTC reach is a separate consideration for Americans and market operators exposed to US persons. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to trade within that cumulative limit without identity checks, which improves access for smaller positions, but it does not remove jurisdictional or tax obligations.

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Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.