Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and reported via Wunderground historical records. Late May in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning final temperature data must be confirmed by Wunderground before resolution occurs.

The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity. Historical May 26 data from Beijing shows considerable year-to-year variance: readings have ranged from approximately 24°C in cooler years to 36°C during warmer springs. Comparable late-May weather events in northern China have been shaped by early monsoon moisture and subtropical high-pressure systems, both of which introduce unpredictability. Traders should examine 2024 and 2025 May 26 actuals at the same station to calibrate baseline expectations against seasonal norms.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV rules, weather derivatives fall outside gaming regulation if they settle on objective meteorological data; however, prediction markets remain subject to BaFin oversight. US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading weather contracts, though the agency has granted no-action relief for certain peer-to-peer prediction markets. Many platforms offer KYC-free trading up to $1,500 notional exposure, which would cover modest positions on individual temperature bands in this market, though verification requirements vary by operator and domicile.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.