Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and reported in Celsius via Wunderground's historical database. Late May in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning final temperature readings must be confirmed by Wunderground before the deadline.

Historical May temperatures at Beijing Capital Airport show considerable year-to-year variation. In May 2023, the highest daily temperature reached 31.8°C; in May 2022, it peaked at 33.4°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or expect cooler-than-average conditions. Comparable weather markets on this venue typically see probability mass shift as the settlement date approaches and meteorological forecasts become more precise.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and any heat advisories issued in the two weeks preceding 25 May. Upper-air patterns, including the position of the Tibetan high-pressure system, drive late-spring temperatures across northern China. From a regulatory perspective, this market falls under German GlüStV oversight for EU participants and remains within CFTC jurisdictional reach for US traders; no-KYC access up to $1,500 USD equivalent means casual participants can trade without identity verification below that threshold, though position limits and reporting obligations apply above it depending on trader classification.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.