Highest temperature in Beijing on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Historical June data from the station shows typical highs between 28–32°C, though extremes can reach into the mid-30s during heat waves. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are either uncertain about which range will resolve or awaiting clarification on the exact settlement bands. Wunderground's historical archive provides the definitive source; traders should verify the station's exact location and measurement protocols, as urban heat-island effects around the airport can skew readings relative to broader Beijing conditions.

Regulatory frameworks governing this market differ by jurisdiction. Under Germany's GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag), weather derivatives fall outside gaming restrictions if structured as genuine prediction instruments rather than wagering products. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives contracts but typically exempts small-notional weather bets under $1,500 per participant, a threshold relevant to retail accessibility here. UK-domiciled platforms must satisfy FCA guidance on consumer protection and market integrity; the settlement mechanism via Wunderground's public data reduces dispute risk. Traders should confirm their own tax residency status, as weather prediction winnings may trigger capital gains reporting in certain jurisdictions.

Catalysts for price movement centre on seasonal weather patterns and any announced heat events. China's meteorological bureau publishes 10-day forecasts; early June typically sees the transition into the monsoon season, which can suppress temperatures. Any official heat warnings issued by the China Meteorological Administration in the week prior to 9 June would sharpen probability estimates. Traders should monitor real-time temperature trends from 7–8 June as the settlement window approaches, since short-term atmospheric conditions become increasingly predictable within 48 hours.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.