Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on historical weather data published by Wunderground, which maintains continuous records for this major aviation meteorology hub. Beijing's early-summer climate typically sees daily highs between 28–35°C, though heat waves can push readings above 37°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient trader participation to establish meaningful odds.

Historical June temperatures at Beijing Capital Airport show considerable year-to-year variance. Between 2015 and 2024, mid-June highs ranged from 26°C to 38°C, with an average near 31°C. The 2022 heatwave pushed readings to 40°C in parts of northern China, though airport stations—typically positioned in open, well-ventilated areas—often record slightly lower peaks than urban centres. This volatility makes single-range predictions difficult without seasonal forecasting models. The current zero probability across all ranges may reflect settlement mechanics that require traders to select discrete temperature bands rather than continuous values.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on trader jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV provisions, weather derivatives fall outside gambling classification when tied to objective meteorological data, though operators must hold appropriate licences. US CFTC oversight applies to prediction markets involving US persons, though weather-settlement contracts typically receive lighter scrutiny than financial derivatives. No-KYC access up to $1,500 USD means casual traders can participate without identity verification on many platforms, lowering barriers for small-stake positions on this Beijing temperature outcome.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.