Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

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Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 15 June 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport meteorological station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. Mid-June in Beijing typically falls within the early summer season, with daily highs ranging between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, capturing the full calendar day's peak temperature.

Historical June temperatures at Beijing Capital Airport show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, mid-June highs ranged from 25°C during cooler years to 38°C during heat events. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating all temperature bands as equally likely given the wide forecast uncertainty six months ahead. Comparable weather markets on similar Asian cities typically see meaningful probability mass distributed across three to five temperature bands when settlement is more than 90 days away, indicating this market's current state reflects minimal trading activity rather than consensus bearishness on any specific range.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative sits within the German GlüStV framework as a prediction market with financial settlement. US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading on offshore platforms, though weather derivatives typically fall outside direct commodity futures regulation. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD applies to aggregate position value; traders can access this market without identity verification up to that limit, provided their jurisdiction permits participation. Wunderground's historical data feed remains the binding source, with no dependency on exchange announcements or scheduled economic releases—only actual meteorological observation.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.