Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will determine the settlement outcome. This market resolves using historical weather data from Weather Underground's archive for that specific date and station, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, after which the final temperature reading becomes immutable for resolution purposes.

Atlanta's May temperatures historically cluster between 75 and 92 degrees Fahrenheit, with extreme highs above 95 degrees occurring roughly once per decade during late May. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently perceive no meaningful chance of an exceptionally high reading, though this reflects pre-season positioning rather than meteorological impossibility. Comparable May heat events in 2016 and 2019 produced readings in the mid-90s; seasonal patterns favour moderate warmth rather than anomalous extremes at this calendar point.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under distinct frameworks depending on trader jurisdiction. UK participants fall under the Gambling Commission's purview unless the platform holds appropriate betting licensing; EU traders face German GlüStV requirements if the operator holds a German licence. US CFTC reach extends to derivatives contracts, though prediction markets occupy a grey zone pending further enforcement guidance. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure typically apply this threshold per account per market, meaning traders can participate without identity verification below that stake level—a material accessibility point for retail participation in weather derivatives.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.