Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24?

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Market context

Ankara's highest temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Esenboğa International Airport, the city's primary meteorological station. May temperatures in Ankara typically range from 25–32°C, though extremes occasionally exceed 35°C during heat waves. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical database, which aggregates official Turkish meteorological observations throughout the day.

Historical May records for Ankara show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest May temperatures at Esenboğa ranged from 31°C to 37°C, with an average peak around 29–30°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally cool conditions or uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Comparable late-May forecasts for central Anatolia typically cluster in the 28–34°C range unless a heat dome pushes readings above seasonal norms.

Traders monitoring this market should track Turkish meteorological forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly any alerts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service regarding heat waves or anomalous pressure systems. North African high-pressure systems occasionally drive temperatures above 35°C in late May, though such events remain infrequent. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 24 May, meaning final readings must be confirmed by Wunderground before market resolution. Regulatory access to this market depends on jurisdiction: German traders face GlüStV restrictions on prediction markets, whilst US traders fall under CFTC oversight of derivatives. No-KYC access up to $1,500 USD applies to most jurisdictions outside restricted zones, lowering barriers for casual weather traders.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.