Highest temperature in Ankara on May 22?

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Market context

The event is the day’s peak temperature at Esenboğa International Airport in Ankara, with settlement tied to the highest reading recorded on 22 May 2026. Early-May climate normals for Ankara point to a mild, late-spring range rather than a heat extreme: typical daily highs are in the low 20s Celsius, with forecasts for this month clustering around the mid-60s to low-70s Fahrenheit, or roughly 18–22°C. That makes the broad expectation a moderate result rather than a sharp breakout, and it helps explain why a 0% implied YES probability may simply reflect market structure rather than a meaningful belief that the temperature cannot land in the relevant band.

Comparable Ankara May data show a gradual warming into the low- to mid-20s Celsius, with occasional hotter afternoons but no persistent summer pattern this early in the season. For a highest-temperature market, the main reference point is whether the airport station sees a brief afternoon spike above the prevailing monthly norm; even a small difference in cloud cover, wind, or timing of showers can move the daily maximum by several degrees. In regulatory terms, access is not the same as legal certainty: German GlüStV restrictions can affect whether a user may participate from Germany, US CFTC reach remains relevant for US persons, and “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means smaller-volume access may be possible without identity checks, but only subject to platform limits and jurisdictional screening for this specific market.

The practical catalysts are meteorological rather than event-driven: the overnight forecast, any morning update from Turkish or international weather services, and the timing of cloud cover or convective showers around Ankara in the early afternoon. Wunderground’s station history for Esenboğa is the resolution source, so traders will watch whether the day develops into a standard warm spring afternoon or a brief hotter spell before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. With no major scheduled policy or operational dependency attached to the market itself, the key driver is simply how warm the airport gets before midday.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.