Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran have historically proceeded through intermediaries, backchannel communications, and multilateral frameworks rather than direct bilateral agreements signed by sitting presidents or their designated officials. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed by foreign ministers and nuclear negotiators, not heads of state, yet still constituted a binding international commitment. Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA in 2018, citing its inadequacy; any new accord would require either a formal treaty (demanding Senate ratification) or an executive agreement that Trump could sign unilaterally. The 19% implied probability reflects scepticism about whether a second Trump administration would pursue formal written agreements with Iran by mid-2026, given the historical pattern of escalating sanctions and rhetorical hostility rather than diplomatic breakthroughs.

Key catalysts include statements from Trump's nominated Secretary of State and any signals from Iran's government regarding willingness to negotiate. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News indicates Trump's team has discussed maximum pressure strategies, though no formal negotiating timeline has been announced. The market settles on signature by 31 July 2026, leaving approximately eighteen months from Trump's potential inauguration. Traders should monitor whether the incoming administration establishes a dedicated Iran negotiating channel, whether Iran's government signals openness to talks following its own internal political transitions, and whether any intermediate agreements on sanctions relief or prisoner exchanges emerge—these could indicate movement toward a formal accord.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable and falls within CFTC reach for US-domiciled traders. Polymarket's no-KYC threshold of $1,500 applies to this market, meaning traders can participate without identity verification up to that cumulative exposure limit across all positions, though larger positions trigger standard know-your-customer requirements.

Methodology

This page reviews Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.