Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump's permanent departure from the US presidency before 30 June 2026 remains a low-probability event, with the crowd pricing it at 1%. The market requires either resignation or removal—whether through impeachment conviction, the 25th Amendment invoked permanently, or death in office. Temporary suspensions under Section 3 or Section 4 of the 25th do not trigger settlement; only permanent cessation qualifies. An announcement of resignation or removal before the settlement deadline resolves the market immediately, regardless of the effective date of departure.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No sitting US president has been removed via the 25th Amendment; Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 to avoid impeachment conviction, and Andrew Johnson survived impeachment in 1868. Presidential death in office has occurred eight times, most recently in 1923. The 1% implied probability reflects both the structural difficulty of removal (requiring either presidential initiative, supermajority Senate conviction, or medical consensus among cabinet and Congress) and Trump's current political position following his 2024 election victory. Markets pricing presidential removal typically anchor to baseline mortality risk plus a small premium for political instability.

Traders should monitor health disclosures, congressional dynamics, and any formal impeachment proceedings initiated in the House. The 2024 election cycle has concluded; the next scheduled congressional session runs through 2026. From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls under CFTC jurisdiction in the US, whilst UK traders may access it under the German GlüStV framework if using platforms with appropriate licensing. No-KYC access up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500) applies on some platforms, though higher stakes typically require identity verification and proof of funds.

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Tax UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.