Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran would need to make a **public commitment to stop all uranium enrichment** before 31 December 2026 for this market to settle Yes, so the key question is not whether Tehran slows, caps, or monitors enrichment, but whether it formally agrees to end it altogether. The current 41% crowd probability sits against a backdrop in which Iran has repeatedly treated enrichment as a core bargaining chip, while market wording is broad enough to count a unilateral pledge or a deal with the US or Israel if announced before expiry.

The historical comparator is the JCPOA, which restricted enrichment rather than ending it, and Iran later moved away from those limits. Iran agreed in 2003 to suspend enrichment under IAEA-linked diplomacy, and under the 2015 deal it accepted no enrichment at Fordow for 15 years and limits on stockpiles and purity, but it later announced in 2020 that it had abandoned all JCPOA limits and has since continued enriching at higher levels.[2][1][7] Recent arms-control reporting says US-Iran talks resumed in 2025, with enrichment the central sticking point, and Iranian officials have described retaining the right to enrich on Iranian soil as a red line.[4]

For catalysts, traders should watch for any formal statement from Tehran, a negotiated framework via Oman or other intermediaries, and whether any side couples sanctions relief with a verified enrichment ban.[4] A recent IAEA confidential report cited in March 2025 said Iran’s 60% stockpile had increased sharply, which underscores how far the status quo remains from an outright stop.[4] On accessibility, the market is typically available without full identity verification up to $1,500 in cumulative activity, but that does not remove account, payment, or jurisdiction checks; in Germany, GlüStV rules can affect whether participation is treated as permissible gambling activity, and US CFTC reach matters because event contracts linked to politics and geopolitics may still face derivatives-law scrutiny even when offered offshore.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.