Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Andrea Guerrieri and Max Alcala Gurri were scheduled to meet in the Cervia ATP Challenger on 22 May 2026, with the ATP stats page showing Alcala Gurri won 7-5, 7-5. That makes the current 0% YES price a stale pre-result quote rather than a live opinion on the tennis itself. For comparison, similar Challenger match markets typically swing sharply once an official result appears, while abandoned or uncompleted matches can still settle to a split outcome under the stated rules.

For market access, the legal overlay matters as much as the scoreline. A Germany-based user would need to consider the GlüStV regime, which treats sports and event wagering as regulated gambling activity, while US users face the CFTC’s broad enforcement reach over derivatives-style prediction contracts. On a venue like this, “no-KYC up to $1,500” usually means lighter identity checks for smaller balances or withdrawals, but it does not remove jurisdictional restrictions or make the market universally available.

The main catalysts are procedural: an official ATP score update, a tournament announcement on whether the match was completed, or any correction to the results page if the first published score was provisional. Because the market’s settlement window runs to 29 May 2026, a late administrative change still matters if the winner is not locked in cleanly. Traders should watch the ATP archive entry, tournament draw updates, and any cancellation or retirement notice, since those are the items most likely to determine whether this settles to one side or falls back to 50-50.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.