Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Vilius Gaubas and Pablo Llamas Ruiz are due to meet in Roland Garros qualifying, with the market currently priced at 0% YES. In practical terms, that implies the crowd sees either a non-start, a delay beyond the settlement window, or a very lopsided interpretation of completion risk rather than a straightforward match outcome. For reference, the ATP head-to-head page and live-score listings confirm this is an official qualifying fixture, but the price is better read alongside market mechanics than tennis form alone: if the match is not completed within seven days of the scheduled date, or is washed out entirely, the contract can resolve 50-50. Under German GlüStV rules, access to this sort of event contract can be materially constrained for some users, while US CFTC reach means participation may still be limited or unavailable depending on jurisdiction and platform treatment. Where offered, “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means smaller activity can be used with lighter identity checks, which affects who can enter and at what scale, but does not change the event’s settlement terms.

The main catalysts are administrative rather than tactical: court scheduling, any postponement from weather, and whether either player is moved to a different qualifying court or time block. Roland Garros qualifying is compressed, so traders usually watch for official order-of-play updates and completion of the full best-of-three match before the seven-day deadline. At the time of writing, live-score feeds show the fixture as scheduled, while sportsbook listings are already open, which usually suggests the match is expected to go ahead rather than being abandoned. If there is no clear winner quickly, the settlement rule matters more than serving patterns or rankings, because a start without completion can still change the market outcome.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.