How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remained a constrained shipping lane in the week from 11 to 17 May, with traffic still below pre-crisis norms and some operators continuing to reroute or pause sailings. IMF Portwatch is the settlement source here, so the key question is not headlines about a “closure”, but the total count of reported transit calls across container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo and tanker ships.

Recent crisis data suggests why the crowd-implied 2% YES looks low but not implausible: when hostilities first escalated in March, vessel traffic dropped sharply, with tanker transits reportedly down by about 70% and over 150 ships waiting outside the strait. CSIS has said the waterway has been effectively closed since 2 March, while USNI and UANI reporting through early May indicated transits remained at or near the lowest levels since the offensive began. That makes any weekly total meaningfully dependent on whether the partial recovery in flows turned into a sustained normalisation.

For a trader, the live catalysts are official shipping advisories, carrier schedule changes and port congestion in the Gulf, plus any further Iranian, US or Israeli statements that alter routing risk. Lloyd’s List reporting cited in recent shipping updates said some trading houses were still suspending oil shipments even as some traffic continued, which matters because the market resolves on observed Portwatch calls rather than announced intent. On the access side, German GlüStV rules can affect whether a user may legally participate depending on jurisdiction and operator structure, while US CFTC reach is relevant if the contract is viewed as a derivatives product exposed to US persons. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means smaller accounts may be able to access the market without enhanced identity checks, but it does not remove residency, sanctions, or local-law limits.

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Methodology

We track How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.