Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Syria's formal diplomatic recognition of Israel remains a low-probability event within the two-year window. The Assad regime has maintained a state of war with Israel since 1973, and whilst the Syrian government has engaged in indirect negotiations and ceasefire arrangements—particularly regarding the Golan Heights and cross-border incidents—no pathway to official recognition has materialised. The 3% crowd probability reflects the structural barriers: Syria's alignment with Iran and Hezbollah, domestic political constraints, and the absence of any public government statement signalling a shift toward normalisation.

Historical precedent suggests recognition typically follows either a comprehensive peace agreement or a dramatic geopolitical realignment. The Abraham Accords (2020–2021) saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain recognise Israel without prior conflict resolution, driven by shared security interests and US diplomatic pressure. Syria's position differs fundamentally: it remains in active conflict over territory, hosts Iranian military assets, and faces international isolation. Jordan and Egypt, which normalised relations in 1994 and 1979 respectively, did so after formal peace treaties and significant US-brokered incentives. No comparable framework exists for Syria as of late 2024.

Traders should monitor developments in the Israeli–Syrian military posture, particularly any ceasefire formalisation in the Golan Heights or Quneitra province, shifts in Iran's regional influence, and statements from the Assad government or its Russian and Iranian backers. Recent reporting indicates Syria remains focused on reconstruction and sanctions relief rather than normalisation talks. Any announcement of direct negotiations would substantially alter the probability; formal recognition would require an extraordinary reversal of stated policy and regional alignment.

Methodology

This overview of Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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