Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by 2026?

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Market context

On 12 April 2026, President Trump announced a United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade transits. This market asks whether Trump, the US government, or US military will publicly and officially declare the blockade lifted by 30 June 2026. The resolution criterion requires explicit, official language confirming the end of the blockade; implicit de-escalation or reduced enforcement activity would not qualify.

Historical precedent suggests blockades of strategic chokepoints rarely reverse within months. The Cuban Missile Crisis lasted thirteen days before public de-escalation; the 1973 Arab oil embargo persisted for five months despite diplomatic pressure. More recently, the Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea (2023–2024) prompted sustained US naval presence rather than rapid policy reversal. Trump's April announcement appears tied to broader Iran negotiations, per NBC News reporting on concurrent peace talks. The 0% crowd probability reflects scepticism that diplomatic resolution or policy reversal occurs within eleven weeks, particularly given the blockade's stated connection to ongoing multilateral negotiations.

Traders should monitor official statements from the State Department, Pentagon, or Trump directly for any announcement of blockade suspension or termination. Catalysts include progress in US–Iran peace negotiations, shifts in regional security dynamics, or economic pressure from allies dependent on Gulf oil flows. The market settles on explicit language only; conditional statements, pauses in enforcement, or humanitarian corridors would not trigger resolution to "Yes" absent clear declaration of blockade termination.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.