Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bologna travel to the San Siro on 24 May 2026 to face Internazionale in a Serie A fixture. The current crowd-implied probability of 26% reflects a significant underdog position for the Emilia-Romagna side against one of Italy's dominant clubs. Inter finished second in Serie A in 2024–25, whilst Bologna secured a European qualification spot but remains structurally the weaker outfit in head-to-head matchups.

Historical precedent suggests the 26% probability sits within a reasonable range for away underdogs against top-four Serie A sides. Over the past five seasons, Bologna's win rate at San Siro hovers near 15–20%, though occasional upsets occur when Inter rotate heavily or face fixture congestion. The late-season timing (final matchday context unknown at present) could alter team motivation; if Inter have already secured their finishing position, squad rotation becomes a material variable. Bologna's recent form through April and early May 2026 will be critical—any injury crisis at Inter or unexpected momentum shift for Bologna could shift the probability meaningfully.

Traders should monitor team news releases from both clubs in the week preceding the match, particularly injury confirmations and any European competition outcomes that might affect Inter's rotation strategy. The German GlüStV framework treats sports prediction markets as games of chance, requiring operators to hold appropriate licences; US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like instruments but typically exempts binary sports outcomes under certain conditions. For this market, the no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD (approximately £1,200) applies where jurisdictional exemptions permit, though individual traders should verify their own regulatory standing before participation.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.