Knicks vs. Cavaliers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The series moves to Cleveland for Game 3 on Saturday night, with New York holding a 2-0 lead after back-to-back home wins, 115-104 and 109-93. That leaves the market’s 45% yes price below the position the Knicks currently occupy on the scoreboard, but not by enough to imply a short contest: the Cavaliers still have home court for the next game and the series is not close to closed. In comparable playoff spots, a 2-0 deficit has often pushed one side into a low-probability but live comeback frame rather than a near-certain outcome, which is broadly how this price should be read.

For traders, the main catalysts are simple: the official injury report, any late changes to availability, and whether the NBA confirms the scheduled 8:00 pm ET tip on 23 May. ESPN reported after Game 2 that Cleveland viewed the deficit as manageable, which matters only insofar as it points to an intact roster and a return to the same matchup dynamics rather than an elimination-level personnel shock. The market also has a regulatory angle: if you are assessing access from Germany, GlüStV rules can affect whether participation is permissible; in the US, CFTC jurisdiction is relevant where a venue is treated as a commodity-linked event contract. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to place or hold positions up to that cumulative amount without identity checks, but it does not remove country restrictions or any platform-specific limits on this market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Knicks vs. Cavaliers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.