Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 204.5 | 93% |
| O/U 206.5 | 91% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 90% |
| O/U 208.5 | 88% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 86% |
| O/U 210.5 | 85% |
| Hornets O/U 102.5 | 83% |
| O/U 212.5 | 82% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 82% |
| Heat O/U 105.5 | 82% |
| O/U 214.5 | 79% |
| Hornets O/U 104.5 | 78% |
| Heat O/U 107.5 | 77% |
| O/U 216.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 76% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 75% |
| O/U 218.5 | 72% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 72% |
| Heat O/U 109.5 | 71% |
| O/U 220.5 | 68% |
| Hornets O/U 108.5 | 67% |
| Heat O/U 111.5 | 65% |
| Heat 1H O/U 56.5 | 65% |
| O/U 222.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 64% |
| Race to 30 | 63% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 9.5 | 63% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 14.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 63% |
| Hornets 1H O/U 55.5 | 63% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 61% |
| O/U 224.5 | 60% |
| Hornets O/U 110.5 | 60% |
| Heat O/U 113.5 | 59% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 58% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 57% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 57% |
| Heat vs. Hornets | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 226.5 | 56% |
| 1H Moneyline | 56% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Hornets O/U 106.5 | 56% |
| Heat 1H O/U 58.5 | 56% |
| Sion James: Assists O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 54% |
| Hornets O/U 112.5 | 54% |
| Hornets 1H O/U 57.5 | 54% |
| Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 16.5 | 52% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Heat O/U 115.5 | 52% |
| O/U 228.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 2H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 2H O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 2H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 2H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Hornets 2H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Heat 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Sion James: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Dennis Schröder: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 39.5 | 48% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Hornets O/U 114.5 | 48% |
| Heat 1H O/U 60.5 | 48% |
| Sion James: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| O/U 230.5 | 47% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 11.5 | 46% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 17.5 | 46% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Heat O/U 117.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 44% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 44% |
| Overtime? | 43% |
| O/U 232.5 | 43% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 39.5 | 43% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Naz Reid: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 43% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 34.5 | 43% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| Hornets O/U 116.5 | 42% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 41% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 41% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 19.5 | 41% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 41% |
| Heat O/U 129.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 29.5 | 39% |
| Naz Reid: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 234.5 | 38% |
| Hornets O/U 126.5 | 38% |
| Heat 1H O/U 62.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 37% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 36% |
| Hornets O/U 118.5 | 36% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 29.5 | 36% |
| O/U 236.5 | 35% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| Spread -8.5 | 33% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 33% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 34.5 | 32% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 24.5 | 32% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Assists O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 32% |
| O/U 238.5 | 31% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5 | 31% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 11.5 | 31% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Hornets O/U 120.5 | 30% |
| Heat 1H O/U 64.5 | 30% |
| Sion James: Points O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 29.5 | 29% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Dennis Schröder: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 28% |
| Heat O/U 123.5 | 28% |
| Sion James: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| O/U 240.5 | 27% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 27% |
| Hornets 1H O/U 63.5 | 27% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 26% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 2Q O/U 63.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 26% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -11.5 | 25% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 25% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 25% |
| Hornets O/U 122.5 | 25% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 6.5 | 22% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Heat O/U 125.5 | 22% |
| Spread -13.5 | 21% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 21% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 34.5 | 20% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Hornets O/U 124.5 | 20% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 19% |
| Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| Spread -15.5 | 18% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| 1Q O/U 68.5 | 18% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 17% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 66.5 | 17% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 16% |
| 1Q O/U 70.5 | 16% |
| Heat O/U 127.5 | 16% |
| Spread -12.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 14% |
| Sion James: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 14% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 13% |
| Naz Reid: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| 1H O/U 135.5 | 13% |
| Spread -19.5 | 12% |
| O/U 250.5 | 12% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 12% |
| Dennis Schröder: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| O/U 252.5 | 11% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Naz Reid: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 5.5 | 10% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Assists O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 72.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| O/U 254.5 | 9% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Dennis Schröder: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Naz Reid: Assists O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 8% |
| Spread -23.5 | 7% |
| O/U 256.5 | 7% |
| O/U 258.5 | 7% |
| Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Dennis Schröder: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 7% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -18.5 | 6% |
| O/U 260.5 | 6% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Dennis Schröder: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Naz Reid: Assists O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Moussa Diabaté: Assists O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Spread -22.5 | 4% |
| Spread -27.5 | 4% |
| Spread -24.5 | 3% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -31.5 | 3% |
| Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 93% chance of heat vs. hornets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 6:00PM ET: If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets". If th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $735K.
Methodology
This overview of Heat vs. Hornets reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Tax UK has a different geo footprint.
- Is Polymarket regulated by the UKGC?
- No. Polymarket is not licensed by the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC). It is a decentralised prediction market operated under US regulation. UK traders can use it but do not benefit from UKGC dispute resolution or player protection requirements.
- What are the HMRC tax rules on Polymarket profits for UK traders?
- Polymarket profits are treated as cryptocurrency disposal events by HMRC. Each USDC settlement is a taxable event subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT). For 2026/27, the CGT rate is 18% (basic rate) or 24% (higher rate). The annual CGT exemption is £3,000. Report via HMRC Self Assessment if your total crypto gains exceed £3,000 or proceeds exceed £50,000.
- Does Polymarket KYC apply to UK users?
- Yes. Polymarket requires KYC (Know Your Customer) verification for all users, including UK residents. You must provide a government-issued photo ID and a selfie. The process typically takes 5–10 minutes via their ID verification provider.
- What is the legal difference between Polymarket and Betfair Exchange for UK traders?
- Betfair Exchange is UKGC-licensed, meaning UK consumer protections apply and winnings are typically tax-free. Polymarket is not UKGC-licensed — it operates under decentralised blockchain rules. Profits from Polymarket are subject to HMRC CGT as crypto disposals. Choose based on your regulatory preference and tax situation.
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