Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| CF Montréal O/U 0.5 | 89% |
| O/U 1.5 | 84% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 84% |
| Toronto FC O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| CF Montréal O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| CF Montréal 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 68% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 68% |
| Both Teams to Score | 65% |
| O/U 2.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 60% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| CF Montréal 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CF Montréal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CF Montréal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Toronto FC O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| CF Montréal (-1.5) | 22% |
| CF Montréal O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| Toronto FC O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Toronto FC (-1.5) | 12% |
| CF Montréal (-2.5) | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Toronto FC (-2.5) | 5% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of cf montréal vs. toronto fc - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for July 16 at 7:30 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC - More Markets reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Tax UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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