Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami CF will face Philadelphia Union in an MLS regular-season fixture on 24 May 2026. The 60% implied probability reflects Miami's recent competitive standing within the Eastern Conference, though Philadelphia has demonstrated resilience in head-to-head matchups historically. Miami's roster depth and attacking prowess have improved substantially since their 2023–24 campaign, yet Union's defensive organisation under their current tactical setup presents a material counterweight to favouring the home side.

Historical performance between these clubs shows relatively balanced outcomes across the past three seasons, with neither team establishing decisive dominance. Philadelphia's away record in 2025 indicated marginal underperformance compared to their home form, yet they have secured results against top-tier Eastern Conference sides. The current 60% probability suggests the market is pricing in Miami's home advantage and recent form whilst acknowledging Philadelphia's capacity to disrupt. Comparable MLS fixtures involving these franchises have typically settled within a 55–65% range for the favoured side, indicating the current quote sits within established historical patterns.

Traders should monitor team news releases for injury confirmations in the fortnight preceding the match, particularly regarding Miami's key attacking personnel and Philadelphia's defensive line availability. Fixture congestion—both sides may have midweek commitments in the weeks prior—affects squad rotation decisions and player fatigue levels. Weather conditions on the day, including heat and humidity in Miami, historically influence match tempo and substitution patterns. Settlement occurs at 23:00 UTC on 24 May 2026. From a regulatory perspective, this market operates under German GlüStV frameworks where applicable, whilst US CFTC reach extends to certain jurisdictions; traders in unregulated territories may access positions up to $1,500 without KYC requirements, though larger positions trigger standard verification protocols.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.