Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle Mariners face the Detroit Tigers on 6 June at 1:10 PM ET in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture. The 96% crowd-implied probability reflects the Mariners' stronger 2026 regular-season record and recent performance metrics relative to the Tigers. Resolution hinges on official MLB final statistics; postponement extends the settlement window until completion, whilst outright cancellation or a tied result triggers 50–50 resolution.

Historical precedent suggests that single-game baseball markets at this probability level—where one team holds a clear but not overwhelming advantage—typically reflect a combination of win-loss differential, recent form, and injury status. The Mariners' implied edge aligns with comparable fixtures where the favoured team carries a winning record against a rebuilding or mid-table opponent. However, baseball's inherent volatility means that even heavily favoured outcomes settle incorrectly roughly 4–5% of the time, consistent with the 4% downside risk priced here.

Traders should monitor roster announcements through 5 June, particularly any late-stage injury confirmations or bullpen adjustments for either side. Weather conditions at the venue and recent pitching matchup data—available via MLB.com and ESPN's injury reports—constitute material catalysts. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, this market's accessibility depends on trader jurisdiction: UK-based traders face no KYC requirement up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500 USD equivalent) per calendar year on individual prediction markets, though aggregated exposure across multiple platforms may trigger reporting obligations. Non-UK traders should verify their local regulatory status, as CFTC oversight applies to US persons regardless of account location.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Tax UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.