Athletics vs. San Diego Padres

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Oakland Athletics travel to San Diego on 22 May for an evening fixture against the Padres, with first pitch at 9:40 PM Eastern Time. The market currently reflects a 47% implied probability for an Athletics victory, suggesting near-parity in trader expectations. Resolution depends on official MLB final statistics; postponement extends the settlement window to 30 May, whilst cancellation without a make-up game triggers a 50-50 split.

Historical performance between these franchises shows the Padres have held a modest edge in recent seasons, though the Athletics' competitive standing fluctuates considerably with roster changes and injury status. Comparable single-game markets at this probability level typically see movement driven by late-breaking roster announcements rather than pre-game sentiment shifts. The current 47% YES probability sits within the range where neither team commands clear favourite status, reflecting genuine uncertainty about starting pitcher performance and bullpen availability on the day.

Traders should monitor injury reports through 21 May, particularly regarding key position players and relief arms for both sides. Recent San Diego weather forecasts and any last-minute roster adjustments—trades, call-ups, or unexpected absences—can shift the probability meaningfully in the hours before first pitch. From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable, whilst remaining subject to CFTC oversight in US jurisdictions. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 applies to individual positions on this market, meaning traders can establish positions below that amount without full identity verification, though aggregate exposure across related markets may trigger additional compliance requirements depending on jurisdiction and platform policy.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.