New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Mets face the Miami Marlins on 24 May at 1:40 PM ET in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture. The current crowd-implied probability of 46% for a Mets victory reflects modest confidence in the home team, with settlement finalised by 31 May 2026. Resolution follows official MLB statistics; postponement extends the market until completion, whilst cancellation or a tie triggers 50-50 settlement.

Historically, the Mets hold a slight edge in head-to-head records against the Marlins over recent seasons, though the Marlins' unpredictability in divisional play has made them competitive opponents. The 46% probability sits below the Mets' typical win expectancy based on roster strength and recent form, suggesting the market is pricing in either injury concerns, pitching matchup disadvantages, or the Marlins' home-field advantage in Miami. Comparable late-May matchups between these franchises have seen probabilities shift materially based on starting pitcher announcements and roster availability in the preceding week.

Traders should monitor roster updates through late May, particularly injury reports affecting either team's starting rotation or key position players. Recent weather patterns affecting Miami's stadium and any last-minute lineup changes announced within 48 hours of first pitch will influence probability movements. The settlement window's five-day buffer after the scheduled game date accounts for potential postponements; under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, this market remains accessible to UK-based traders without KYC requirements up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500 USD equivalent), though larger positions may trigger regulatory disclosure obligations depending on the platform's jurisdiction and the trader's residency status.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.