Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers are due to play at 1:10pm ET on 21 May, with the market settling on the listed winner if the game is completed. The crowd price of 16% for Cleveland implies a strong lean towards Detroit, which is consistent with Cleveland being the away side and the more modest public expectation that often attaches to road underdogs in a divisional game. For comparison, Cleveland had just beaten Detroit 8-2 on 18 May, but past single-game results can overstate current edge in a short MLB sample; a one-off upset does not usually move a pre-game probability far unless it is paired with starting-pitcher or injury news.

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, starting pitchers, and any last-minute weather or postponement risk, because the market stays open until the game is officially completed. The recent schedule is relevant: ESPN’s final score page records Cleveland’s 8-2 win on 18 May, while MLB team pages and schedule listings show the clubs continuing the series this week, so late roster management is the practical dependency to monitor rather than long-range form. If the game were postponed and made up later, it would not resolve until that make-up is played; if it were cancelled entirely or ended in a tie, the market would resolve 50-50.

On access and regulation, this kind of event contract sits in a grey area between US commodity-market concepts and offshore-style prediction access. The US CFTC’s reach is relevant because sports event contracts can attract scrutiny where they resemble regulated derivatives, while German GlüStV rules matter for users located in Germany because sports-related betting and similar wagering products can trigger local gambling restrictions even if the market is hosted elsewhere. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to trade smaller amounts without completing full identity checks, which can make the market easier to access in practice, but it does not remove jurisdictional restrictions, tax reporting obligations, or platform verification requirements once activity exceeds the threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.