Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies are scheduled to play in Philadelphia on 20 May at 1:05pm ET, and the market is effectively pricing the Phillies as overwhelming favourites. That aligns with the recent result between the teams: Philadelphia won 5-4 on Monday night after Bryson Stott’s two-run homer in the eighth and a clean ninth from Jhoan Duran, extending the Phillies’ winning streak to five. Historical head-to-head numbers are close enough to matter, with the two clubs split by only a small margin over a large sample, so a 100% YES price is driven more by the specific matchup, venue and current form than by long-run rivalry records.

For traders, the main near-term catalysts are lineup confirmation, starting pitcher news and any late scratch or rain delay information before first pitch. MLB.com’s game story for this series notes Andrew Painter as the starter for Philadelphia in the earlier game, while Cincinnati’s win in game two came with Chase Burns on the mound, underlining how much pitching shape has mattered in the series. Because the settlement window runs to 27 May, the market can stay open if the fixture is postponed and replayed, which is relevant for schedule risk rather than a simple same-day result. From an access standpoint, a market like this is typically available on no-KYC terms up to around $1,500, but higher usage can trigger identity checks; German GlüStV rules and US CFTC jurisdiction are relevant because they affect where participation may be restricted or regulated, depending on the user’s location and the platform’s setup.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.