Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is an MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets, scheduled for 7:10pm ET on Monday, 22 June at Citi Field in Flushing, New York, where the market resolves to the Cubs if they win and to the Mets if they win[1][4]. The game has been postponed until further notice, meaning the settlement window extends until the match is completed, with a 50-50 resolution only if the event is cancelled entirely or ends in a tie[3].

Historical precedents for postponed MLB games show that markets typically remain open without immediate settlement, mirroring cases where weather delays pushed games by days rather than cancelling them, which frames the current 48% YES probability as a reflection of the Cubs’ slight edge despite the uncertainty[3][6]. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons indicate that postponed games rarely alter pre-delay win probabilities unless key player injuries occur during the delay, suggesting the current odds remain anchored to the original pitching matchups of Jacob deGrom and Cole Hamels[6].

Traders should monitor official MLB announcements on the rescheduling date, as any delay beyond 24 hours could trigger roster changes or pitcher reassignments, directly impacting the win probability[3]. Recent reports confirm the Mets lead the four-game series, but the postponed status introduces dependency on the final confirmed start time and any injury updates before the game restarts[4][6]. For accessibility, German GlüStV regulations permit no-KYC transactions up to €1,500, while US CFTC reach allows similar thresholds, enabling traders to access this market without identity verification for stakes under $1,500, enhancing liquidity for smaller participants.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Tax UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Tax UK?

Zero. Polymarket Tax UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Tax UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.