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LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Regulatory snapshot for "LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend": platform geo-block status, KYC thresholds, tax implications.

46 outcomes · leader: Both Teams Slay a Dragon at 100%

0% YES 100% NO Volume: $1.8M 24h volume: $1.8M Liquidity: $445K Opened: 7 May 2026 Closes: 14 May 2026

Resolution criteria: This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and JD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 14 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win the match against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against Weibo Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50

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LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Market statistics

Total volume
$1.8M
24h volume
$1.8M
Liquidity
$445K
Open interest
$1.2M

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
0% 100% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
0% 100% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Available prediction outcomes (46)

Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.

#1 Both Teams Slay a Dragon
Both Teams Slay a Dragon ▲ +32.5%
Vol $50 · 24h $50
100% Trade →
#2 Game 1 Winner
Game 1 Winner ▲ +61.5%
Vol $579K · 24h $579K
100% Trade →
#3 Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 1?
Vol $65 · 24h $65
100% Trade →
#4 Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 1?
Vol $65 · 24h $65
100% Trade →
#5 Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?
Vol $65 · 24h $65
100% Trade →
#6 Match Winner
Match Winner ▲ +27.0%
Vol $522K · 24h $505K
62% Trade →
#7 O/U 2.5 Games
O/U 2.5 Games ▲ +12.0%
Vol $5K · 24h $5K
60% Trade →
#8 Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2?
Vol $5 · 24h $5
50% Trade →
#9 Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?
Vol $65 · 24h $65
50% Trade →
#10 Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?
Vol $5 · 24h $5
50% Trade →
#11 Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?
Vol $202 · 24h $202
50% Trade →
#12 First Blood in Game 2?
First Blood in Game 2?
Liq $20
50% Trade →
#13 Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors ▲ +22.5%
50% Trade →
#14 Any Player Quadra Kill
Any Player Quadra Kill ▲ +24.5%
50% Trade →
#15 Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor ▲ +24.5%
Liq $20
50% Trade →
#16 Both Teams Slay a Dragon
Both Teams Slay a Dragon ▼ -17.5%
Liq $20
50% Trade →
#17 Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors ▲ +22.5%
Liq $20
50% Trade →
#18 Any Player Quadra Kill
Any Player Quadra Kill ▲ +24.5%
Liq $20
50% Trade →
#19 Odd/Even Total Kills
Odd/Even Total Kills
Liq $20
50% Trade →
#20 Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor ▼ -1.5%
50% Trade →
#21 Both Teams Slay a Dragon
Both Teams Slay a Dragon ▲ +9.0%
50% Trade →
#22 Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors
50% Trade →
#23 Any Player Quadra Kill
Any Player Quadra Kill ▼ -2.0%
50% Trade →
#24 Any Player Penta Kill
Any Player Penta Kill ▼ -6.0%
50% Trade →
#25 Odd/Even Total Kills
Odd/Even Total Kills
50% Trade →
#26 Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?
Vol $5 · 24h $5
50% Trade →
#27 Any Player Penta Kill
Any Player Penta Kill ▲ +44.1%
Vol $17 · Liq $0
50% Trade →
#28 Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)
Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)
Liq $39
47% Trade →
#29 Game 2 Winner
Game 2 Winner ▲ +4.0%
Vol $238K · 24h $238K
43% Trade →
#30 Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2? ▼ -19.5%
Vol $5 · 24h $5
31% Trade →
#31 Any Player Penta Kill
Any Player Penta Kill ▲ +7.5%
Vol $21 · Liq $32
11% Trade →
#32 Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1? ▼ -49.5%
Vol $55 · 24h $55
1% Trade →
#33 Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor ▼ -25.0%
Liq $812
1% Trade →
#34 Odd/Even Total Kills
Odd/Even Total Kills ▼ -49.5%
Liq $632
1% Trade →
#35 Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?
Vol $55 · 24h $55
1% Trade →
#36 Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1? ▼ -50.0%
Vol $1K · 24h $1K
0% Trade →
#37 Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? ▼ -50.0%
Vol $74 · 24h $74
0% Trade →
#38 Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? ▼ -50.0%
Vol $94 · 24h $94
0% Trade →
#39 Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? ▼ -50.0%
Vol $13K · 24h $13K
0% Trade →
#40 First Blood in Game 1?
First Blood in Game 1? ▼ -50.0%
Vol $150 · 24h $150
0% Trade →
#41 Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5)
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) ▼ -40.0%
Vol $489K · 24h $489K
0% Trade →
#42 Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
Vol $65 · 24h $65
0% Trade →
#43 Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 1?
Vol $65 · 24h $65
0% Trade →
#44 Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 1?
Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 1?
Vol $65 · 24h $65
0% Trade →
#45 Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 2?
Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 2?
0% Trade →
#46 Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 2?
Total Kills Over/Under 23.5 in Game 2?
0% Trade →

Market context

This market refers to the LoL match between Weibo Gaming and JD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for May 14 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win the match against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against Weibo Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50

Wikipedia Context

  • Gumbel distribution
    Gumbel distribution

    In probability theory and statistics, the Gumbel distribution is used to model the distribution of the maximum of a number of samples of various distributions.

  • LOL (web series)

    LOL is a web series exploring teen relationships, drug use and social networks. It premiered on Blip on 29 November 2008. There are 20 webisodes in total, ranging between 2 and 5 minutes in length with the last webisode being 10 minutes long. The series was self-funded, with initial help in kind from a local production company. It was shot on a Red One digit

  • Bobby Lowe
    Bobby Lowe

    Robert Lincoln Lowe, nicknamed "Link", was an American Major League Baseball (MLB) player, coach, and scout. He played for the Boston Beaneaters (1890–1901), Chicago Cubs (1902–1903), Pittsburgh Pirates (1904), and Detroit Tigers (1904–1907). Lowe was the first player in Major League history to hit four home runs in a game, a feat which he accomplished in Ma

  • Bob Lowes

    Robert Lowes is a Canadian ice hockey executive, and former ice hockey coach. He has worked as the assistant director of player personnel for the Vegas Golden Knights since 2016. Lowes led the Nipawin Hawks to the 1990 ANAVET Cup championship, before being a head coach in the Western Hockey League (WHL) for 12 seasons with the Brandon Wheat Kings, and the Re

Methodology

This overview of LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/lplenglish. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. PolyGram has a different geo footprint.
Do I need to KYC for PolyGram?
Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
How are winnings taxed?
Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
What if regulation changes?
If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), PolyGram would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.

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