Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: MILO (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs MIBR.LOS (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between MIBR.LOS and LYON in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 15 at 12:10PM ET. This market will resolve to "MIB…
Methodology
This overview of LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Tax UK has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Tax UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Tax UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
Trade LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D on Polymarket Tax UK
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