Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Tax UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 3.5 Games | 73% |
| Match Winner | 66% |
| Game 1 Winner | 60% |
| Game 2 Winner | 59% |
| Game 3 Winner | 59% |
| Game 4 Winner | 57% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 57% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 55% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 49% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 47% |
| Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5) | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 43% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 40% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 34% |
| Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5) | 23% |
| Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 22% |
| Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 7% |
Market context
LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 73%. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between LYON and Team Secret Whales in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 8 at 4:00AM ET. This market …
Methodology
This overview of LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Tax UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Tax UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Tax UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
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